Trend Detection in Seasonal Inflows and the Influence on Energy Generation in Goleşti Hydropower Plant
Keywords:time series, seasonal trend, Student-t, Mann-Kendall test, hydropower generation
Among the multiple water uses, electricity generation is a factor strongly affected by alterations in the water cycle due to climate change. Long periods of drought followed by rainy periods lead to significant changes in the natural regimes of water flow in rivers. This paper aims to determine the long-term trends of seasonal inflows (spring, summer, autumn, winter) in Goleşti reservoir using daily data recorded over an 11-years period with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The influence of tendency of increasing or decreasing was analyzed for the inflows in the Goleşti reservoir on the energy produced in associated hydropower plant.
Longobardi, A. & Villani, P. (2010). Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area”, Int. J. Climatology, vol. 30, no. 10, 1538–1546. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2001
Jaiswal, R. K., Lohani, A. K. & Tiwari, H. L. (2015). Statistical Analysis for Change Detection and Trend Assessment in Climatological Parameters”, Environ. Process. 2, 729–749. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-015-0105-3
Birsan, M.-V., Zaharia, L., Chendes, V. & Branescu, E. (2013) Seasonal trends in Romanian stream ﬂow, Hydrological Processes, vol. 28, no. 15, 4496–4505, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9961
Bormann, H. & Pinter, N. (2017). Trends in low flows of German rivers since 1950: comparability of different low-flow indicators and their spatial patterns, River Research and Applications, vol. 33, no. 7, 1191–1204. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3152
Piniewski, M., Marcinkowski, P. & Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2018). Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland, Acta Geophysica,vol. 66, 347–360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0116-3
Coch, A. & Mediero, L. (2016). Trends in low flows in Spain in the period 1949–2009, Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 61, no. 3, 568-584. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1081202
Billi, P. & Fazzini, M. (2017). Global change and river flow in Italy, Global and Planetary Change, vol. 155, 234–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.07.008
Uddin, M., Akter, S., Uddin, M.J. & Diganta, M. (2018). Trend Analysis Variations and Relation Between Discharge and Rainfall: a Study on Kushiyara River, Journal of Environmental Science and Natural Resources, vol. 10, no. 2, 121–132. https://doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v10i2.39025
Abghari, H., Tabari, H. & Talaee, P.H. (2013). River flow trends in the west of Iran during the past 40 years: Impact of precipitation variability, Global and Planetary Change, vol. 101, 52–60. https://doi.org/10.1016j.gloplacha.2012.12.003
Tomozeiu, R. , Busuioc, A. & Stefan, S. (2002). Changes in seasonal mean of maximum air temperature in Romania and their connection with large-scale circulation, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 22, no. 10, 1181–1196. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.785
Zaharia, L. & Beltrando, G. (2009). Variabilité et tendances de la pluviométrie et des débits de crue dans la région de la courbure de l’arc carpatique (Roumanie), Geographia Technica, Numéro special, 471–476.
Birsan, M.-V., Zaharia, L., Chendes, V. & Branescu, E. (2012). Recent trends in streamflow in Romania (1976–2005), Romanian Reports in Physics, vol. 64, no. 1, 275–280.
Prăvălie, R., Zaharia, L., Bandoc, G., Petrisor, A.-I., Ionuș, M. O. & Mitof, I. (2016). Hydroclimatic dynamics in southwestern Romania drylands over the past 50 years, Journal of Earth System Science, vol. 125, 1255-1271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0730-x
Popa, R. & Neagoe, A. (2008). Elemente de statistică şi prelucrarea datelor (Elements of statistics and data processing), Printech Publishing house, Bucharest.
Yue, S., Pilon, P. & Cavadias, G. (2001). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Journal of Hydrology, vol. 259, no. 1-4, 254-271. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7
Kendall, M. G. (1962). Rank Correlation Methods, Hafner Publishing Company: New York.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2021 The Journal of CIEES
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.